Okay, let’s start by saying that we have established that the 2015 Chicago Cubs season isn’t actually doomed yet. Let’s further suggest that because the Cubs are expected to improve and should get reinforcements from the minors, they should be in contention for most of the year and might even try to add via trade to get those one or two marginal wins they need to get into October.
My opinion is that if the offense does what most of us think they can, the Cubs would add more on the starting pitching side. While there is plenty of depth in the minors, depth just means a healthy guy who may not get embarrassed every time out; it doesn’t mean an impact pitcher who can do more than just help the team tread water. Now, we also know that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are unlikely to sell out or go all in on any deal, but they would have to identify any and all opportunities and take advantage of said opportunities.
So let’s try an idea, starting with Johnny Cueto…
This…is not a terrible idea. RT @dreamingof1908 Dear Cubs. Trade for Johny Cueto. #Kthxbai
— Rice Cube (@CubicSnarkonia) April 6, 2015
Now there are a few caveats here. One, Cueto is a free agent after this year, upon which some team is going to pay through the nose for his services from his age 30 season on. (That list also has a lot of other viable free agent pitching options.) Two, he’s had some injury issues in the past, famously in the 2012 National League Division Series when he barely lasted 10 pitches before he was done for the series (and so were the Cincinnati Reds). Finally, if the Cubs wanted to trade, the opposing general manager is Walt Jocketty, who helped set up the St. Louis Cardinals for a run of dominance since the last 1990s and won the 2006 World Series before moving to Cincinnati. So no slouch there.
All that being said, there’s little chance that Cincinnati is keeping Cueto around past this year, or past this trade deadline for that matter. Extension talks aren’t moving anywhere. Cueto’s deadline is seemingly past for negotiations, as he pitched shutout ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates until Kevin Gregg screwed that up (Reds won anyway). And since the Reds aren’t projected to do too well this year, and Jocketty has already traded away a couple of his top starters, you would have to assume that Cueto is a high-priority trade commodity, in addition to Cole Hamels and David Price (if the Detroit Tigers can’t extend him).
Legitimate Ace (Photo: Scott Cunningham, Getty Images)
We’re also talking about a guy who has always been a solid-to-elite starting pitcher, capable of eating tons of quality innings when healthy, and who did come back from injury to post 243.2 innings and a Cy Young runner-up last season. Johnny Cueto is the definition of a “good pitcher,” as his peripherals and his velocity have been pretty consistent throughout his career. Assuming he does his yoga and stops tweaking his back, Cueto is a pretty good bet to be good for this year and then some. And he would likely come at a prospect price that is cheaper than Hamels or Price.
Couple that with the part where the Reds’ starting shortstop right now is Zack Cozart and their farm system doesn’t exactly have a good middle infield option (of which the Cubs have tons), and it seems like a good fit.
Which brings us to context. There is no guarantee that a trade for Cueto will give the Cubs any more than the one-week exclusivity window after the World Series to snag an extension. A midseason trade means that this is a pure rental, with Cueto unable to retrieve a compensatory draft pick under the current CBA. I am approaching this as a pure rental exercise, because I am operating under the (very optimistic) assumption that the Cubs are in contention through July 31st and that Cueto is the addition that will improve the club by at least a win, maybe two. This is the difference between a theoretical maximum of 86 wins and missing out on the wild card, and getting to 88 or so to snag that second wild card. And once you’re in, as the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants showed last season, anything can happen.
Of course, the Reds may still extend Cueto. And the Cubs could wait until the offseason to land Cueto as a free agent, which means they won’t have his services for two months of the stretch run. But because he is a rental commodity, the trade price may be lowered, though not too much, since Cueto is elite and his GM isn’t dumb. We also know that Cueto is going to come pretty expensively this coming winter, as this happened:
#RedSox today signed RHP Rick Porcello to a 4-year contract extension through the 2019 season. — Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) April 6, 2015
Porcello deal takes effect starting in 2016. $500K bonus, salaries of $20M, $20M, $21M, $21M. He’s still under contract for $12.5M in ’15.
— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) April 6, 2015
That’s four years, $82.5MM for Rick Porcello.
But if we keep the parameters at simply, “Let’s get Cueto so he can help us get those one or two extra wins and we’ll worry about 2016 later,” then this trade idea makes sense.
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