The Chicago Cubs’ draft turned out predictably if you look at the first ten picks on the surface. An advanced college bat in the first round, and then six more pitchers. This formula is what the Cubs have had under Theo Epstein. The high first round pick devoted to a safer bat and then attack the pitching void, not sure void is the right word anymore with the arms coming up in the system but you get the point, with volume. I had written ahead of the draft about the fact the front office being more clandestine than usual in their intentions and that we should expect the unexpected. But the way the first round pick turned out had me commenting :
So this draft has been far more predictable than I thought. Cubs might be a wildcard or not
— dabynsky (@dabynsky) June 8, 2015
Safe college bat. Nope Cubs stayed predictable. Now for the flurry of arms 2-10
— dabynsky (@dabynsky) June 9, 2015
But the front office did throw us a curveball when you dig below the surface, and to see that you have to understand a bit about the MLB draft. First, the MLB draft is really unlike any other draft in North American professional sports, at least among the big 4 in the United States. I don’t know enough about the MLS or other minor sports draft to compare it, but the larger point remains that the MLB draft is very unique. One of the main reasons is how long it takes talent to emerge from the draft to contributing, or not, at the MLB level. But baseball’s draft rules and environment make it such that talent is not the only consideration when selecting a player.
The new CBA essentially put into place hard slotting, and it effectively divided the draft into two parts. The first part was just finished yesterday with round 10 being completed. Those draft picks have a draft pool assigned to it. If you sign a player you get to keep the draft pool associated with that pick. Go over the total draft pool you have by more than 5% and a team loses its highest draft pick (there is no protection from this loss). Rounds 11-40 have no pools associated with them, but if a team signs a player for more than $100,000 the amount over is added to their draft pool spending.
The results of these rules has been a lesson in the law of unintended consequences. Teams have developed a strategy of taking college seniors in the last rounds of this first “half” of the draft. The reason being that college seniors have the least leverage in their negotiating with teams, and teams can get these low ceiling prospects to sign significantly below their assigned slot value. This frees up money that the team can spend on the earlier round picks, and/or a post round 10 splurge or two. I wrote before the draft also to watch when the Cubs started to take college seniors. They did that starting round 6 which is where the surprises start.
Here is the part of the post that is going to be out of date by the time it is posted.
#MLBDraft: So, maybe my calculations are off, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see #Cubs get aggressive early on Day 3. Seems like $ is there.
— Nick J. Faleris (@NickJFaleris) June 10, 2015
The Cubs could take several of the tougher to sign players on day 3 if they do have some money left over. The Cubs have never really tried this strategy, but it appears like they might have set themselves up for it a little bit. Last year the Cubs managed significant savings on the Kyle Schwarber pick which they mostly used for big overslots on day 2. There is unlikely to be any savings on rounds 1-2 this year with Ian Happ and Donnie Dewees, but the high school picks of Bryan Hudson and D.J. Wilson are likely to command significantly more than their slot amount to forgo their college commitments. At the end of the day, the Cubs are unlikely to make huge splashes on day 3, but they probably have the ability to grab a few more Trevor Clifton or Kevonte Mitchell types this year than years past. We will know very early on if the Cubs are serious about making a splash. If the Cubs are taking these hard to sign types in the 11-20 range there is a good chance the Cubs have budgeted to add these players. If instead there are taking in the second half (referring to rounds 21-40) of the draft it is probably more about relationship building than actually signing those players.
The true surprise in the draft is just how aggressive the Cubs were taking signable college seniors. This marks a stark departure from the approach taken since 2012. The Cubs in 2012 played the draft virtually straight up. No players in the first ten rounds were signed for less than $100,000. In 2013, the Cubs took Zack Godley in the 10th round for $35,000. And in 2014, the Cubs took James Farris and Ryan Williams for less than $5,000 combined. This year the Cubs might have half of their players taken in the first 10 rounds end up signing for less than $100,000. This is a dramatic shift in strategy from the first three drafts the Cubs have been involved in.
The second surprise is how position player heavy the Cubs draft was when you view it through this lens. The Cubs took two non-college senior pitchers and three position players in those first five rounds. This highlights that the Cubs truly are a best player available team in terms of the draft and really did not stick to the formula we have seen the previous few years despite the surface similarities.
UPDATE: With the Cubs’ portion of the draft now over, you can check out their haul here.
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