There is a lot of excitement around Chicago Cubs baseball. Another top prospect received the call a few days ago, and in his first start crushed “Major League” pitchers. There are lots of interesting ramifications of the temporary call up, but one theme has really stuck out to me. This tweet here sums up what I have seen variations of written in various forms by a lot of smart people.
@dabynsky I think it’s about the signal it sends about how serious the FO is about winning this year.
— Rian Watt (@rianwatt) June 16, 2015
There is no doubt that the Cubs record played a role in Kyle Schwarber‘s call up this year. That is clearly the reason Schwarber earned a call up and Kris Bryant did not for his similarly dominant play in AA last year. But what I do question is whether this a signal that the front office is serious about winning this year.
The argument that does signal that the front office now believes that this might be the year rests on the idea that the call up of Kyle Schwarber was sacrificing something of the future for the present. The Cubs are willing to start his service time clock this year, and that means the front office sees that this year might be special. The problem with that theory is that the Cubs really haven’t sacrificed anything of the future yet. Kyle Schwarber was going to be called up next year given the way he has developed. If this call up is the only time Schwarber spends on the major league roster then he merely has to spend an extra six days down at the start of next year. I don’t have any doubt that the front office would do that. They certainly do not care about the optics of so obviously manipulating service time.
The call up of Kyle Schwarber did have an effect on the future. Schwarber was added to the 40 man roster this season and the Cubs could have chosen to leave him off of the 40 man roster altogether. It has been written in many places, but Stan Croussett has one of the concisest articles on the looming 40 man roster crunch. The Cubs gave up one roster spot to keep one of those fringe players on the 40 man roster by adding Schwarber now. As of now that is all the front office has sacrificed for the now in this move.
The Cubs are certainly entering a window of opportunity in terms of competitiveness. The front office clearly recognized that with the free agent bonanza that was vastly different than any other offseason Epstein and Hoyer were at the helm in Chicago. But every move made hinted at this year being a transition year. Jon Lester and Jason Hammel were each added for multiple years. Miguel Montero had multiple years on his deal, and, to the dismay of many Cubs fans, David Ross was signed for a two year deal. There was only one move that the front office has made that truly hinted that they might feel this year might be a playoff year. That move was trading two years of Luis Valbuena for one year of Dexter Fowler.
But what about adding Rafael Soriano? The front office was willing to invest a fair bit of money into a reliever which seems odd if the front office isn’t prioritizing winning this season. The Cubs did invest a fair bit of money into Rafael Soriano for a midseason addition, but the Cubs have shown no issue with adding money on short term deals throughout the rebuild. The Cubs added Kevin Gregg on a minor league deal in the middle of a lost season. This and moves like Chris Denorfia have been exactly the type of moves made throughout the front office’s tenure in Chicago.
The action that would show the front office truly believes that this team is a contender this season, and not merely transitioning into one, would be to spend significant future assets to address needs for this year’s club. I don’t think that will happen. John Arguello wrote a piece that explains one rationale for not making the move. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs wrote about another factor in why this type of move might not happen. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer’s previous tenure as buyers at the deadline also doesn’t point to spending significant prospect assets, more on that in the future perhaps.
The Cubs made an unconventional move to gain an edge for a one week period. It is the type of move that we have come to expect from a front office always looking for an edge. This move though came at the extremely low cost of a guy on the roster bubble–a guy that may very well be traded in the coming months due to that roster crunch. That is not the type of move that signifies a front office believes its current roster is a contender. This is probably a semantic argument, but I do think the difference in degrees matters here. The Cubs made a move that reflected the record of the team at the time the move was made, but the front office has yet to show that they are willing to sacrifice any future for the sake of winning this season.
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